Crude oil prices set for a weekly gain but look indecisive amid the directional market on Friday. Brent failed to stage a recovery yesterday, with the price has settled around the 20-DMA after a brief spike above $79. Market participants have already digested the latest signals from OPEC. The cartel promised to remain committed to the existing deal, which prevented prices from further decline.
The risk of another wave of profit taking remains however. The US shale producers continue to pump record volumes, with the levels of shale oil production are getting closer to 11 million bpd. Should today’s Baker Hughes report signal further rise in the drilling activity, the bearish pressure could intensify, despite the inventories declined substantially last week.
From the technical point of view, a daily close above the $78 threshold is needed to bring the $80 level back in the game. Chances for such a scenario are rather low at this stage as the market obviously lacks both impetus and fresh drivers for now, while the Baker Hughes release is a local bearish risk for prices.
By Helen Rush
Senior Analyst at Capital Markets