Crude oil prices struggle to find a clear direction on Friday, continuing their consolidation around the $65 level. Market participants are somehow apathetic due to a lack of meaningful drivers in the commodity markets for now. Brent is attempting to overcome the $65 local resistance, but can’t clear the $65,40 area for the last three days already.
Such a dynamics may point to conflicting factors in the market. On the one hand, the lingering concerns over US shale production continue to weigh on prices, as well as a widespread risk aversion on the back of global political tensions. On the other hand, the greenback’s persistent weakness and high OPEC discipline play in favor of the asset. However, at this stage, these bullish factors are just limiting the downward pressure and can’t fuel a sustained demand for Brent.
Therefore, crude prices will likely continue to struggle in a relatively tight range until fresh drivers emerge. In the short term, a break above the 20-DMA at $65.20 is needed in order to accelerate the ascend and avoid the intense selling pressure. This scenario is at risk however ahead of the upcoming Baker Hughes data which may reflect a higher number of oil rigs and send the prices lower.
By Helen Rush
Senior Analyst at Capital Markets