Crude oil prices failed to show a sustainable recovery on Monday and has been trading with a modest bullish bias on Tuesday. Brent has settled marginally above the $63 handle and remains vulnerable to losses as the bulls remain on the sidelines amid conflicting signals in the market.
Brent is now torn between geopolitics and worries over oversupply. On the one hand, the futures are supported by the lingering Persian Gulf tensions after Tehran's seizure of a British-flagged oil tanker. On the other hand, signs of rising non-OPEC oil production continue to limit price gains, especially amid the slowing global growth, threatening demand.
In the short term, oil prices could get hit by the updated IMF World Economic Outlook should the fund slash global growth forecasts further. As such, Brent will hardly be able to recover above $64 any time soon, while the risk of a break below $62 persists.
Later in the day, the API will release its weekly inventories report, which is followed by the official assessment from the EIA on Wednesday. Should the figures come bullish, the market could derive a local support from the fresh data.