The oil market is looking forward the Trump’s decision on Iran. Investors continue to wonder, if the US President will announce today that he withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposes sanctions against Tehran. Over the last month, traders were pricing in the decline in Iranian oil exports and these expectations, coupled with the continuing OPEC efforts, have sent Brent to fresh late-2014 highs above the $76 threshold.
Since early hours in Asia, the price is consolidating around the $75,50 mark as the market is on a wait-and-see mode ahead of Trump’s verdict. The risk is that the strategy “buy the rumor, sell the fact” may play out today, as traders may rush to a profit taking on the announcement following a short-term jump. While the market is focused on Iran, today’s API inventory data may remain unnoticed by investors.
From the technical point of view, Brent needs to regain the $76 level to confirm further bullish impetus. As long as the price remains above the 20-DMA around $73,60, the upside risks prevail in the short term. Should the traders confirm the “sell the fact” trade, the mentioned moving average could serve as a support level.
By Helen Rush
Senior Analyst at Capital Markets