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EURUSD: elevated uncertainty ahead of US NFP report
Forex
06/07/2019

EURUSD: elevated uncertainty ahead of US NFP report

EURUSD rose yesterday after the ECB meeting was not as dovish as many feared. The pair briefly jumped above the 1.13 handle and has settled below the 100-DMA since then.

EURUSD rose yesterday after the ECB meeting was not as dovish as many feared. The pair briefly jumped above the 1.13 handle and has settled below the 100-DMA since then. On Friday, the euro is under some pressure again as dollar demand moderately picks up ahead of the major event of the week.

Market participants are eagerly awaiting the US NFP employment report due later today, especially after the recent dovish hints from some Fed officials including Powell. There is high uncertainty ahead of the release as other job market indicators were mixed.

In particular, ADP report was dismal, showing growth by just 27K, the lowest level since 2010. Meanwhile, the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims rose slightly to 215K, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey employment component rose sharply to 58.1 from 53.7 last month and ISM Manufacturing Survey employment component rose slightly to 53.7 from 52.4.

Should the report show a solid rise by 185-200K, the greenback may appreciate across the board, if wages data comes strong as well. In this scenario, EURUSD could threaten the 1.12 handle once again.

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