The EURUSD’s rally gained traction on Thursday on the back of a broad-based US dollar weakness exacerbated by the year-end thin trading. A new wave of aggressive selling in the buck was mainly provoked by the recent declines in Treasury yields and adjusting positions ahead of the New Year’s holidays. The pair extended the rally above 1.19 and encountered resistance around the 1.1950 area, flirting with fresh four-week highs.
Tomorrow Germany releases final December CPI and the markets are expecting a gain of 0.5% after a 0.3% rise during the previous month. In today’s economic bulletin, the ECB expressed confidence that the underlying euro area inflation will rise gradually. If the German data doesn’t disappoint and signal a more robust inflation growth in the largest European economy, the release may provide a fresh bullish impetus for the single currency’s move.
In such circumstances, the EURUSD pair will try to overcome the key 1.1950-60 zone, opening the way to the 1.20 psychological mark. But as Friday is the last trading day of the year, some traders may partially close long euro positions following another potential rally. Therefore, the profit-taking slide may threaten the 1.19 threshold which is the key to the downside in the short-term.
By Helen Rush
Senior Analyst at Capital Markets