Today’s ECB meeting will undoubtedly will be a crucial one, despite the regulator isn’t going to bring any actual changes to its current monetary policy. Despite the economic picture in the euro zone doesn’t warrant a hawkish rhetoric, the recent comments by a number of central bank members point to its readiness for QE removing, probably till the end of this year.
The euro is prepared for a more aggressive regulator tone, but the question is whether it will be enough to fuel a speculative demand. The buck, for example, failed to stage a rally overnight despite the Fed has brought a so-called hawkish hike. It was in part due to the fact that such an outcome had been priced in already.
Therefore, the EURUSD pair could fail to confirm the rebound above the 1.18 threshold and may even suffer a decline as the strategy “buy the rumor, sell the fact” could come into play should the monetary authorities announce the expected QE end date. A spike during the initial reaction may bring the pair above the 1.1840 area.
By Helen Rush
Senior Analyst at Capital Markets