The Bank of Japan two-day meeting ending on Tuesday is not expected to bring any changes in the monetary policy, but it doesn’t mean it will be an uneventful one. Earlier this month, the regulator trimmed the QQE purchases slightly. Despite the action is assessed by the market as a purely technical measure, investors took it as a sign the Japanese monetary authorities may soon join their global counterparts in their tightening cycle.
The Central bank is widely expected to raise its GDP growth forecast for 2018 due to the recent global growth acceleration. Besides, some news agencies reported last week the BoJ is considering to upgrade its economic outlook. Moreover, its recent Sakura report was the most upbeat in 11 years. As for the core inflation forecast, it will likely to stay unchanged due to yen strengthening.
A more “hawkish” Kuroda’s tone on the QQE coupled with raising economic forecasts may increase the downside pressure on USDJPY, on top of the fact that the greenback is facing domestic political issues and can’t stage a decisive recovery despite the US Treasury yields growth. In such circumstances, following the failed attempts to regain 111.00, the pair may get back to lows in the 110.20 area and threaten the 110.00 threshold.
By Helen Rush
Senior Analyst at Capital Markets