Today the two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting concludes. The central bank’s tone will set the direction for the dollar across the board. In the light of recent weakness in economic data from the US and a softer rhetoric from the Fed officials, traders expect the policymakers to adopt a dovish stance and confirm an easing bias in the second half of the year.
According to Fed fund futures, there is a 23% chance that the rates will be cut at today’s meeting, while expectations of a cut in July come at 83%. The central bank will likely decide to buy time and refrain from easing today, so the degree of dovishness of the statement and the number of cuts in the dot plot will determine how far the greenback could decline.
Be the way, the US currency may enjoy a rally should the FOMC tone come less dovish than expected. In this case, riskier assets will come under pressure after the recent rally on renewed hopes for resuming US-China trade negotiations, as Trump tweeted overnight of his plans to hold an “extended meeting” with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month.